There is a mood of caution prevailing in the Middle Eastern cranes sector at the moment. The combination of continued low oil prices and geopolitical unrest is giving firms cause for concern, and yet at the same time companies acknowledge the cyclical nature of oil prices and government spending means that a bottoming out in the market today is a precursor to rising prices, and rising demand tomorrow.

Even with governments budgeting for prices of $45-$55 per barrel in 2016, oil production rates have remained stable and infrastructure spending is, for the most part, continuing. But for now the brakes seem to be on as far as growth is concerned. "Over the last few years, market size has been growing consistently in our region, especially in Saudi Arabia," says Ajit S Nair, General Manager for crane business at Kanoo Machinery, which is the authorised distributor of Grove cranes in UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. "After many years of steady growth, last year we could see a decline in market size and this trend is set to continue in 2016 mainly due to the drop in oil price and the prevailing geopolitical situation. We expect a market slowdown, the extent to which it will drop is something that is difficult to predict."

Tony Nuyts, Branch Manager at Aertssen Machinery Services Middle East says that he too is expecting a slowdown. "The market is OK now. Projects that have been awarded are progressing but I am concerned about the second half of 2016 and beyond. There will definitely be a drop off in work as new projects are not being awarded now. As a smaller company the impact will not be so bad for us. Half of our work is in Qatar and half in Dubai and as a global company we are well diversified."

Saudi Arabia seems to be the biggest concern for firms. "Saudi Arabia is the biggest market [in the region] by far and hence a drop in market size is a major concern for every player in the industry. On the positive side, governmental investments in oil and gas sector, airports, railways and critical infrastructure projects are set to continue," says Nair.

Within the cranes sector Nair says that rough terrain cranes account for 80% of their market and this is where the slowdown has been most apparent. "We have definitely seen a slowdown in this segment. The trend started towards Q2 of 2015 and this is mainly due to the slowdown in construction sector."

Construction affected

"The biggest market segment affected is building construction," says David Semple, vice president of sales for Manitowoc in the Middle East. He points out that within the cycle of revenue generation it is infrastructure investments considered to be less essential that are most affected.

"Oil output has been relatively consistent so the region still needs as many cranes for refinery shutdowns and to maintain infrastructure so it is not felt so much the oil and gas industries – it is more in the cycle of money," he says explaining that along with oil production spending on defence is a key priority. This leaves a third aspect, infrastructure that is "nice to have" more vulnerable to spending cuts. Not surprisingly then it is cranes associated with this that have seem more impact.

"The only segment where we have really seen a slowdown is the tower crane product line, on the mobile side the impact hasn’t been that obvious," he says. Manufacturer Tadano says that the situation in the region is unclear. "We assume that the current low oil price would continue for the time being, at least in the course of this year. Saudi Arabia, which has the biggest demand of mobile cranes, will be especially affected due to such situation," says Shinichi Iimura, Executive Officer for International Sales.

However he says the impact will not be as bad as the period following the global financial crisis. Like Semple he points to sustained high oil production as being a driver of continued activity. "The production volume of oil is kept in high level and the mid and downstream of energy industry, such as refinery and chemical plant, is still busy.

The scenery is very much different from that in 7 years ago. We are receiving lots of orders as well as inquiry, and no cancellation."

Furthermore he says that neighbouring GCC states such as the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar are rather active. "We have estimated that this year we cannot avoid influence to a certain extent to the demand not only due to the low oil price but also ongoing geopolitical confusion.

But also we are sure there is a huge potential demand for cranes not only for the energy sector but infrastructure especially in Saudi Arabia. Actually we have received some inquiries probably for such projects. So we are not pessimistic at all for Middle East."

Tower crane specialist Wolffkran is just one of the companies that have benefitted from Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure and construction boom having supplied over 200 of its distinctive red cranes to projects across Saudi Arabia in the past 6 years.

Thirteen of its machines are currently supporting construction of the 1000m tall Jeddah Tower which is set to become the world’s tallest building (see box). Habib Mikati, Managing Director of Wolffkran ISS in Dubai says that a combination of factors including political issues and the low oil price are affecting the Kingdom but he says that the company remains focussed on the market.

In Saudi Arabia Wolffkran works in partnership with Roots Group Arabia and their projects have included King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, the Princess Nora bint Abdulrahman University in Riyadh and the ongoing extension of the Holy Mosque in Mecca.

In neighbouring United Arab Emirates Wolffkran works in joint venture with Kanoo Group under the company Wolffkran Arabia. Its fleet is a mix of saddle jib and luffing cranes ranges from 6 to 40 tonnes. "We are seeing a growing popularity in the larger cranes," says Managing Director Martin Kirby. "We are very fortunate in that 2015 was a record year for us primarily in the rental segment and we invested heavily.

I would say that in Sept 2015 for us looking forward we were very optimistic but sentiments have started to change. I think that 2016 is going to be very challenging."

Working for customers across a range of locations and business sectors is an important aspect of remaining successful, says Kirby along with taking a long term view.

"Two years ago most of work was in Abu Dhabi but now it is Dubai," he says.

Other firms concur that Dubai remains a regional hotspot with low oil prices reducing construction costs. "Dubai was especially good for because the oil price being less people meant that were trying to complete their projects as soon as possible," says Karna Hedge, sales executive for Al Faris Equipment Rentals, which has 600 cranes in its portfoilio, around 95% of which are supplied by Liebherr. "The World Expo 2020 has been given to Dubai and there are a lot of new projects coming forward from that which are in the bidding stages and might start by April or May. In the next 2-3 years Dubai will be in a construction peak," he says.

Payment pressure

One of the side effects of a spending slowdown is finance. "We are still seeing demand but what will come under pressure is cash flow and payments," says Kirby. "Payments have not always been easy to receive. There is a bit of stress in the market and it starts with the contractors, I don’t see that improving this year and we will all have to be diligent about getting payments, 2015 wasn’t easy either."

Increasing demand on the rental side, rather than sales as contractors seek to reduce costs, means an increasing need for credit facilities. "Having learned lessons from the 2008 recession, people are more cautious now," says Nair. "Customer requirements for extended and flexible payment terms are increasing. It definitely does impact as the payment cycle is getting extended."

Manitowoc’s Semple too notes the slowdown in the payment cycle. "There has been a bit of a slowdown in the cash collection cycle. You see a number of actors holding on to their money a little longer," however he says that their distributors are all well positioned to weather the conditions. "As a manufacturer we go through well established distributors or dealers and in the GCC these are companies that have been around for a long, long time. They are large, strong and cash rich. It is true that payment behaviour and cash collection has become tighter in the last 18 months but as a manufacturer we are not really affected."

Another side effect of more challenging market conditions is the need to deliver better value to customers. "Everyone needs to make money so we see a great emphasis on further improving the cost of ownership so actually our customers look forward to solutions that enable them to do more for less," says Christian Kassner, senior manager for sales and customer support, Sales International at Terex Cranes. "For example our one engine concept for the Explorer series is quite high demand as it reduces the maintenance effort," he says.

"In addition the load moment indicator has been developed further, we call it the IC-1 Plus. With that technology we can give load charts based on the actual crane configuration," he says explaining that the updated control system has enhanced visualisation which gives additional information on capacity related to the boom position and the slewing angle. "So let’s say a crane at 220 that would lift on a 40m radius 4.7t. Using the IC-1 Plus you can lift more than 10t depending on your configuration. It is the same crane but with this technology you can get more than 200% more performance."

Future growth

Looking ahead several firms pointed to growth potential in Egypt and Iran. "We see positive potential in the market particularly in North Africa," says Mike Abbas, regional commercial director, Mammoet. "Oil and gas and power is growing and there are a lot of expanding opportunities in Egypt," he says pointing to a record setting heavy lift transportation project that recently tested the company. Working for the Egyptian Refinery Company Mammoet was contracted to move 16 heavy items, weighing 1700t, across the country using self propelled modular transporters (SPMTs). "It required so much coordination and effort. You really have to do your homework and preparation," says Abbas.

The units had to be transported 247km between Suez and Cairo crossing desert, mountainous roads and highways.

Over 30km of compacting and road reinforcement was needed, five highway tunnels had to be reinforced with steel beams and hydraulic jacks, 80 city trees had to be cut and 250 light poles and more than 200 road barriers needed to be removed. The challenging route also included inclines of 4% and leads straight through Cairo to the jobsite Mostorod in Qalubiya where the 1600te and 750te Mammoet cranes were configured to receive and install the heavy items.

The biggest cargo of 1220te, a hydro refining reactor, arrived safely at the job site on the 5th of December and was transported by 3 trains of 34 axles SPMT and 7 PPU – which means a 102 axle configuration within 45 days. On 11th December the lifting and installation of the reactor was completed. "It was a big success. The government was very, very pleased," says Abbas.

Manitowoc too is finding much interest from Egypt where it has just sold a large order of its rough terrain cranes. The first 12 are now at work on power projects in the country and a further 24 units are set to be delivered in the first semester of 2016. "The vision in Egypt is quite good, the local rulers have the right vision and view on what is needed to boost the economy. On paper they have extremely exciting projects happening, a lot of social housing and power projects. The question is how they are funding them. Liquidity is an issue."

The other market capturing regional attention is Iran with the prospect of the lifting of international sanctions combined with Iran’s massive infrastructure and equipment needs ensuring all eyes are on the country. "At one time Iran was our best market.

It was the best country in our portfoilio and we did a lot of exciting projects," says Abbas. "I truly believe that once Iran comes back Mammoet will take the lead in that market and we have the relationships and we understand what it takes to deliver in that market, nonetheless it all depends on sanctions and whether we can move forward."

Sales manager at Locatelli Cranes Michele Mortarino also sees much potential in Iran and also hopes to see stability return to Syria where it once had 100 machines. "I am hoping personally that even Syria could find [itself in] a more calm situation for restarting our investment there.

Locatelli used to be present with around 100 units. In Iran we had the chance to be quite competitive so thanks to the new political agreement both countries could grant some more opportunities."

As for other parts of the Middle East Mortarino credits the strong relationship that the company has with its dealers as being key to its ability to manage the slowdown.

The constant communication with its network and flexible production enabled the company to pre-empt changes in regional demand and redirect stock to growth markets of Latin America, the Far East and Africa. It also meant that the firm could focus on the most in demand models which in recent years have been the 8700T (65t) and 8800T (87t) models. "This help and support came from our local dealers, they had the correct feelings and shared this with us for 2015 and for this reason we had the opportunity to correct our evaluations and to change a little bit our targets," he says noting the importance of good relationships. "We are a big family and this is very much appreciated by our partners."

So although the oil price is low, the mood is not with firms exercising caution yet still responding to market needs and finding new opportunities. "There is always a peak and a trough in the crane industry and by next year we hope that the market will stabilise.

We hope that in 2016 the market will bottom out and then again be stable," says Nair. "In spite of the slowdown, our region still remains one of the major crane markets in the world."