This time last year I made some predictions for the year ahead, and in my defence will say that I did pretty well on all of those which I had meant to be taken seriously.
Tadano Faun’s 200 tonner finally came to market rated at 230t (not 250t as I had said). Major rental groups Baldwins and Brambles have broken up – I predicted there would be a third. I was spot on in predicting that Manitowoc would not take over Demag, and Terex would not take Grove. I was fairly confident that it would be the other way around, but not quite confident enough to go that far in print.
My mistakes: I wrongly predicted that Liebherr would respond to Demag’s CC 8800. A rash call – Liebherr isn’t quite ready for that leap yet. Most significantly I was wrong about the Japanese manufacturers. Significantly more rationalisation is required, but Sumitomo and Hitachi (and to a lesser extent Tadano) really have followed through on their 2001 announcement of joint co-operation.
My predictions for 2003 are:
1. We will see significant changes to Link Belt’s product line, with a new top of the range truck crane and new Hitachi Sumitomo crawler models.
2. Liebherr Ehinghen’s new 50 tonner will create strong interest within Demag’s legal department.
3. Self-erecting tower cranes mounted on all-terrain carriers will be offered by Grove/Potain and Demag/Comedil.
4. China will grow in importance as a crane market to such an extent that the BICES event in Beijing in October will prove to be more significant than Intermat.
5. Spanish manufacturers will continue to grow in prominence on the world market.
6. Enlargement of the European Union will generate demand for construction cranes in new member states.
7. If global political stability prevails, demand for new construction cranes will gain in strength in all the major markets of the world, albeit slowly, and we will look back on 2003 as a significant turning point in the industry’s fortunes.