A crane owner told me how he was happy to cross the Atlantic at a day’s notice to buy a used crawler. He knows he can get work for it now. But he will not now buy a new crane. He will not take the risk that there would still be enough work for it at the end of 2009, when, he said, the crane would actually arrive.
His case might be extreme. I have heard some manufacturers are letting companies who have ordered a crane off the hook if they don’t want it, or letting especially good customers alter a confirmed order six months down the line. And two years is an unusually long delivery time for a crane, even today. We report this month (p7) that manufacturers around the world are expanding production to cope; this might improve the situation.
Although demand for cranes has stretched a long way, it is not infinite, and we are now seeing its limits. If other crane buyers start to think the same way as the crane owner I spoke with, then we will be entering a new phase of the equipment cycle. This phase will only end when supply exceeds demand. It will be the beginning of the end for the boom.
